The Pinetar Rag

July 5, 2009

Respect

Filed under: Uncategorized — mcgonnigle @ 10:27 am

Click here to see the video on viddler in a new window

This weekend was Max’s 10U baseball tournament.  4 games in 2 days.  They won it all.

What you see in the video is my favorite moment from the weekend.  Max is getting his winner’s medal from the coach of the team that he shut out on 2 hits about  a month ago.  The coach does a fake “turn-away” on him as if to say, “oh, not THIS guy!”.  It was a high compliment.

In fact, a few times during the weekend, kids from this town asked if Max was on the team, and then they groaned when they were told “yes”.

In that same vein, a short time ago, a kid on a different team in Max’s town, told Max that when they played this town, they asked if he was on the team–asked about him by name.  Now THAT’s really something, isn’t it?  For 10 year olds?  Notorious!  You have to love that.

So with 4 games in 2 days, I was sure he’d get to pitch some but he only got to throw one inning and I’d be lying to you if I said I wasn’t disappointed.  I think I understand the rationale used by the coaches–they were holding him back I suppose and things just broke a certain way to have it shape up like that.  I should take it as a compliment of sorts and I do, but at the same time, I’m disappointed.  Make sense?

But when all the pitcher-type kids ended up pitching a fair amount and Max ended up pitching one inning, you scratch your head and think, “wow, what does this kid have to DO?”  I had written a post a while back ago and just done a butcher job on it, but the idea was basically that speed and size impress while touch and feel and nuance do not–that idea seemed to take shape this weekend.

The harder throwing boys got their licks in.  In fact, the hardest throwing boy started game one at 9am on Friday and was back starting the final game at 9am on Saturday–against the team that Max shut out, no less!  The moral is throw harder, and we will try to do that because that is the ticket, obviously.

And when Max did get in the game, it was funny really, because you could audibly hear the other kids, who he had shut out, groaning and saying things like, “…this guy has that changeup!”.  I really had to laugh.

And of course Max was not sharp in his one inning of work.  He walked a few guys.  I know the answer–he didn’t throw enough, both in the preceding days and as warm ups in the half-hour before.  I can’t suggest that to the coaches because they’ll think I’m more of a loon than they already think, but this boy needs to throw a lot to tune up.  He’s not a microwave.  He doesn’t heat up fast.   With him, the danger is NEVER throwing too much–the danger is always not enough.

And I fault myself for not getting with him to throw the night before.  I was planning on doing it but I couldn’t manage it. Mistake.  He’d have been far better off if I got with him.

And I don’t fault the coaches for the warm ups.  They warmed him up.  I know that.  It’s just that in that situation, where he might have been nervous (he was very nervous, coming in late in a championship game.), the ticket for him would be to have him throw more.  But I understand that there’s a limit to how much he can throw and how much time the coach can devote to warming up the kids, because, as I know, when you are warming up a boy, you are totally out of the loop re the game.  You have no idea what’s happening.  I get that.

It just kind of bummed me out is all.  I’m not taking anything away from the staff–they won the games got the kids a victory.  So you would come across as a nut if you said anything, but really, this boy has been wondering to me why he hasn’t pitched very much after he had really done well about a month back.  I tried to tell him that there was a stretch there were there were few games and that was part of it and that the coach has to spread the innings around.  I try to get him to understand, I really do.  I try to understand myself.  I never want to be one of those parents who takes every little thing as a pre-planned shot at their kid.  I know how hard it is to please everyone and I know how negativity isn’t good for the boy and gets you nowhere in town.  So I try to stay out of that thinking.

But here with the 4 games in 2 days, I found myself telling the boy, “don’t worry Max, you’ll get to throw in those games–you HAVE TO, they need pitchers for that many games.”

And so then I’m guilty of setting up his expectations–building them up, so-to-speak.  And I never want to do that.  But I was just giving him my opinion as honestly as I always try to do.

Bottom line is: he had fun and he won and did well and was in the thick of an exciting tournament in his world.  But the subplot is speed.  We will be working on throwing harder, make no mistake.  Throwing more often and harder.  People dig the fastball.

July 4, 2009

Can’t swim without them

Filed under: Uncategorized — mcgonnigle @ 6:03 pm

lucky

Here’s a dopey advertisement from yesteryear.  It basically says, you know, it’s hard to swim without a smoke.  I just can’t go from here to there in the pool without a haul off a butt.  And what better one than a filterless one!  And since your hands will be wet, you need a broad to hang out at the pool and light your smokes and pass them to you.  She’s got this look on her face like she’s giving medicine to a sick child.  Did this stuff work?  I guess it did.  Whoahhh…

Kenny’s back; the league is ours

Filed under: Uncategorized — mcgonnigle @ 6:44 am

kenny

Probably the best sign that Liverpool are poised to retake the League: King Kenny Dalglish is back in the fold.  He hasn’t been around since leaving in Feb 1991.  He will work with the academy and try to increase the production of first-teamers that come out of there.

Man, check out the  old unis…I love the yellow Liver Bird, but the pinstripes have got to go.  Take it away, Kenny!

***

Addendum to the Michael Owen shocker of yesterday: I really don’t think he’ll end up getting a lot of minutes.  I mean, really.  Berbatov and Rooney?  Where and when is he going to play?

Overall, I am getting more and more pumped for this EPL season.  If Gerrard’s groin is solid–the sky is the limit!  Simpre es Posible~

July 3, 2009

Owen to Man U? Zoinks!

Filed under: Uncategorized — mcgonnigle @ 2:17 pm

MikeO

Click here to see fans reactions to Michael Owen’s absorption into the Death Star

Just in.  Michael Owen to Manchester United.  It’s a 2-year deal with no transfer fee, as MO is a FA.  So strange to see this on soccernet.  Shocking really, in a way.  Ok, very shocking.  And then to see an article below it, where Ian Rush is saying nice things about it…Tosh??  C’mon, it’s THEM!

Owen holds a special place in Red hearts.  He’s the bridge from Rush & Fowler & the Spice Boys to Gerrard and what we have now.

His two goals against Arsenal in the FA Cup final were, at the time, the best thing I’d ever seen the Reds do.  Remember, it was pre-Istanbul and pre-treble.  Down 1-0 at about 65+ mins and then in 5 minutes, bang-bang: 2-1!  What a game.  Thank you for that, Michael.

My trip to Anfield in 1998 had me looking at a starting team of both Owen and my idol Robbie Fowler, and, get this, in the garbage time, on came Steven Gerrard for his first ever, first team minutes at the end of the game.  A game with Paul Ince scored one of the nicest goals right in front of us at the Anfield Road end.

You fly 3500 miles and you want to see something–we did that night.  I remember having fun in The Albert (and all over town really) that night telling folks that we were in from New York to watch the game.  Some did spit-takes, but most didn’t think much of it.  Maybe that’s because there were a bunch of Norwegians and Swedes hanging out who had come from other countries as well.

We were almost topped on that item by the Manx girls (from the Island of Man) who flew in to Liverpool JUST to party for the weekend, because, as they said, the Isle of Man is too small and they are bored with everyone there.

And I recall dragging my wife to see Michael in his last ever game in Red–at Giant’s stadium in NJ!  That’s right, the pre-season friendly tour in August of 2004.  I also dragged her to Connecticut for the game against Celtic.  She actually didn’t mind so much.  We didn’t know it at the time but we were seeing the last game and goal that Owen ever scored.

Then they went on to win the European Cup.  The 5th.  It was almost a religious experience, those 10 minutes in Istanbul and they are maybe the best 10 minutes I’ve ever seen in sports watching in all my life.  And I was THIS CLOSE to leaving the bar at the half because they were down 3-0 and playing like absolute shite, but the Irish-Red bartender refilled me and I thought, “aaah, I’ll stick for  while…”

Micheal did not hoist that cup.  That was Gerrard’s deal, plain and simple.  And after winning that and watching the injuried he suffered, you KNEW it was the right time to cut him loose.

And he gave you so much return on your watching investment, that you never wish him ill…until now.  Now, he’s with the Death Star; and I hope he nets an own-goal on par with Riise’s.  Sorry Mike.  You’ll be allright even so.  You make 70 thousand quid a week for all those years and how can you NOT be?  But you are with THEM.  Buh-bye.  And shame on you Tosh!  Shanks and Paisley are rotating in their graves.

You’ll Never Walk Alone (This is Void if you sign with THEM).

June 30, 2009

Tonight, I’m ashamed of my country

Filed under: Uncategorized — mcgonnigle @ 10:16 pm

Real simple.  Al Franken is a Senator now.  He and the Democratic thugs in the state of MN absolutely stole an election in broad daylight.  Where was the media on this one?  Cheering, of course.

They tried to steal the 2000 presidential election in Florida and when the Republicans actually had enough backbone to thwart that, they climed it was rigged the other way.  They’ve done this before and they will do it again.  The playbook is open: If a Democrat loses by less than 1000 votes: lawyer-up and get it flipped.

It’s disgusting.  It’s disgraceful.  And it’d be maybe a little easier to stomach if it weren’t such a major DB who got in.

Are you proud tonight, Dems?  Got your man in there, didja?  Great.

June 28, 2009

Nice Day

Filed under: Uncategorized — mcgonnigle @ 8:18 pm

DSCN1164There’s a shot of me from Smoke Signals.  I’m shown after winning the long-distance throwing contest.  As I recall, I won it a couple of years around that time.  I had a big arm early, and then faded back to the pack and I was passed later on by lots of other boys.  But at this time, I was chucking that ball.

Anyway, at this one, they were giving out the prizes and they called out the second place kid for knowingly entering the group when he was a year too old.  The man with the megaphone, really went out of his way to tell the folks that the kid knowingly tried to nab that ribbon.  In his spiel, he said, “…you’re a year older, and Fog beat you ANYway!”  That’s one of those moments you don’t forget.

And the caption of this was “hey look Ma, I won!”, which, made fun of that look on my face.  That look, is the way I look, and that look was on my face pretty much no matter what happened, for the entire 1970’s.  I was a normal kid–I just had that look!  It was like a handicap.

I can recall also having  nervous tick of yawning.  I used to pitch and yawn–sometimes yawning after almost every pitch.  And sure enough, I could hear some rude parents on the bench, lauphing!  As in, “…he’s YAWNING!”.  But I’d be striking out their little darlings.  Really pouring it over and mowing them down…and yawning.  As I heard them chuckling, I recall thinking, “…ok, watch THIS…” ziiiiip pow.  Steeerike.  And they kind of quieted down.

My nephew always has a smile and looks pleasant–man, what I wouldn’t have given for an ounce of THAT.  And speaking of the transition from he to me–I retired from softball today.  Played my last game.  The knee was barking and then the meniscus torn and the MRI revealed bad arthritis and now it’s swollen and it’s just not worth it.  With what little I have left, I want to save it for my own little workouts–such as they are and kicking the soccer ball around with my two boys, for as long as I can do that.

I went to my nephew’s game today after missing several and it was an entertaining ball game with good pitching.  Our starter threw well and hard and so did their’s.  We went up a few and in the serious heat, our starter got a bit wild.  Max was waved in from short and I was a little nervous given that he didn’t really have any warmups.  He gave up a hit or two with the bases loaded, but he got out of it.

His next inning was an 8-pitch gem with him pitching to contact and getting outs.  The other kids weren’t squaring him up somehow.  People always think that the best thing a pitcher can do is strike out the side, but what about a 3-pitch innning?  Three 1-to-3 putouts?  Which would you rather have?  There’s no right answer of course and with men on, you want the K’s so nothing can advance, but contact isn’t the worst thing, you know?

In the last inning, he had a cushion of a couple of runs and got a quick 2 outs and then put 2 on but got out of it.  2 and 2/3′rds.  I was really happy for him.  And he made a few plays that I know he wouldn’t have made last year, so he’s progressing.

He has been playing at shortstop lately, which is just something I would not have predicted.  Any time we have done fielding in the past 6 months, it has been me hitting him flies, because I assumed he’d be in the outfield.  That, and for a while we concentrated on comebackers because I wanted him to get those outs that his changeup would generate–and so far he has, which is nice.

The team has guys bunting now with signs, which is cool to teach the kids, but today, they had a kid who is a slugger bunting after a lead off walk.  The starter has a high pitch count and many walks to his credit so far.  The team is only up one run because of the inning Max took over and they gave up a few.  I think we were up 5-4 with two innings to go.

So after a lead-off walk, they bunt the slugger and he’s thrown out 1-3, I think–so the sacrifice works.  Then, the kid they bunted over is nailed stealing third!  Now it’s bases empty and 2-dead, and dontchaknowit?  We score I think, 3 runs.  But wouldn’t that have been a blow-out inning if we didn’t just HAND them the two outs?  And if you want to play for one run and you’re willing to steal third to do it: why aren’t you willing to steal second?  I just don’t get that.

You have 18 outs.  They are your most precious resource.  You don’t GIVE them away unless you have a darn good reason.  That idea is the core concept of Moneyball and it’s not just theory anymore–it’s pretty much accepted that the computer models don’t lie.  That’s why OBP is viewed to be more important than before.  Because if you get on base, you haven’t made a precious out, and if you don’t make outs, you WILL score runs.  The computer models have been run and they all basically PROVE that bunting to sacrifice hurts the offense, unless you think that the batter can’t buy a hit, and, more importantly, has no chance of being walked!

I could look it up in the book Baseball by the Numbers, by the Baseball Prospectus guys (a tremendous book, btw, which I truly recommend).  I think the number is around .140 meaning, that if the hitter has a better than .140 chance of getting on base, the sacrifice COSTS the team runs in the long run.  Now, with 10 year olds, I’m willing to bet that just HBP is a .030 proposition and walking is about a .200 clip (especially this boy today).  Together, if the kid doesn’t swing the bat, I’ll bet he’s on and you preserve the out roughly one-in-five times approx.

Now you add to that, the kid’s batting average and you have at LEAST a .400 cocktail for On-Base-Pct, which means, you’re giving away the out.

But there’s one more wrinkle.  The kid may be slumping.  The coaches may have seen something.  They may figure he’s got a very good chance to get down a bunt and beat it out.  I understand that.  And to the extent that you think he will bunt for a basehit, the stuff I’m writing is moot.  But I’m writing it with the advantage of hindsight: The kid ended up giving himself up.  So I acknowledge that it isn’t cut and dried, but you see my point, no?  And I’m also a computer programmer/DBA.  I understand and work with data all the time so I have “bought-in” to the concept that you don’t give up outs, a little heavier than most.  I just plain don’t believe in giving up outs, because to me, the numbers don’t lie.  And remember that those numbers are based on 27 out games, not 18 out games.  So percentage-wise, 1/18 is a bigger sacrifice than 1/27–a bigger number.  But of course, the runs weigh more in the shorter game to offset.

Anyway, is there a “right” answer?  I don’t know.  I like the idea of the teaching and the discipline, because with 10-year olds, that’s partially what you’re there to do.  But this boy could have walked and he certainly could have hit.  And at this level, you aren’t taking the double play off–because 1o year olds make about 1 a year.  So while I understand and appreciate the coaches teaching the whole bunting game, I think it’s a bit overused and in that particular spot, it kept the game close and could easily have cost us the game.

The other thing that came to mind was taking chances on the basepaths.  Some argue that you play aggressively, especially early in the game, because you have time to cover for mistakes. Ok, fine.  But I would be more conservative in the first inning, until I see for myself and assess, the level of the other team’s throwing and catching.  Get a few data points.  See if you can take that base before you’re sending kids.  I’m all for taking chances at the right times to do so.  Just because a kid is thrown out on the bags, DOESN’T mean the decision to “go” was a bad one.  Sometimes you go and say to the other team, “…make a play on me!”.  That’s fine.  But there’s free information out there; you just have to take a little time and collect it before you can test it.

In the first inning, I’d let things develop while watching.  An out on the bases is SUCH a game-changer, that, to me, it’s not worth the occasional extra bag you may grab.  Once you get a boy on base, they’ve lost their biggest chance to get him out! (which was in his AB).  Now, if you run aggressive without good info on their glove-ability, you can run into an out and remember, if it’s the first inning, you have ALL your big boppers coming up.

Also, because of the scale of the kids at this age in relation to the field-size, I’d take my chances running AWAY from the throws (that’s second to home), and be more conservative running towards the throws (home to second).

And also, this age group, I’ve noticed, is peculiar.  When the boys hit ball in the gap, they think “extra bases” right out of the box.  I’ve seen Max fall into this as well.  But at 10 years old, they aren’t yet strong enough to really drive the ball up the gap to where a double is automatic!  But try telling them that!  The ball dies in the grass and a travel-calibre (not Rec) kid is quickly on it and making a short, 40 or 50 foot throw to 2nd base and your big hit up the gap is now a kid coming off in tears.

Moral?  Until they’re a little stronger and can really drive the ball, don’t assume a gapper is an automatic double or triple!  As much as it s***s, the first base coach has to make a QUICK decision on a ball like that and and aggressively hold that boy at first, even though the kid is going to feel gypped at being held!  A man on first with a pitcher who just gave up an shot and no outs are a lot better than one-dead, none-on and a kid who is bumming in the dugout.  Just is.  And it’s counter to everything you have seen out there, so it’s hard.

Kids (Max is one) also fall into the mindset from Rec, that anytime he sees an outfielder’s back, he can go 4.  But these aren’t Rec kids picking daisies in the outfield.  They are travel kids and they can throw and they hustle and they know where to throw it.

One thing I forgot to write up a long time ago, was a play that Max’s team put on.  With men on 1st and 3rd, the kid from 1st will steal on just about anything and if you throw through, the kid on 3rd will walk home.  Well, Max’s coach pulled out a set play that I had never seen and it’s great.  He lets them know “it’s on” and if the kid on 1st runs, the catcher throws a hard, low ball to the shortstop who’s running in to behind the mound, more or less.

The kid on third sees (or is sent) the throw and takes off.  The shorstop cuts it and throws to the waiting catcher–dead duck–lead runner cut down, and a HUGE psychological advantage is gained.

Not only that, but these 9 & 10 year old boys LOVE this cloak-and-dagger stuff!  It makes it fun; it makes travel seem cool–like they’re in a club and learning “special” or “advanced” stuff.  They’re “in on it”.  Kids love that and it’s great coaching.  You see them perk up when that situation arises, as in, “…oh great, we can try that play now”, and they’re more into the game.  That’s a play I’ll have to remember for the future.  And I’m not saying you load up on trick plays, but you do have some of them–they have value beyond just their own x’s and o’s.  Look at Parcells.  He’s got them ready.  Remember the snap to Reason in 1990, I think it was?  A fake field goal?  They are all wearing rings because of that one play, it could be argued.  So they have a place.

I enjoyed the game.   My dad, who just had both eyes operated on for cataracts, came out.  I drove him down.  He’s 83 and not walking real good anymore.  His sister, my Aunt, just passed away last night.  But he had fun watching that little boy do his thing.

June 27, 2009

Scam

Filed under: Uncategorized — mcgonnigle @ 1:15 pm

Click here to read about how the Democrats are stealing from you and will continue to steal from you and weaken your country’s economy all in the name of a complete hoax that the Liberal media has gladly helped them ram down your throats.

The bill is 1200 pages and they had less than 12 hours to read it!?  That’s a little bit longer than “Atlas Shrugged”, at 1069 pages.  It took me 3 weeks to get through that book in 1983 and sadly, many of the things that seemed outlandish in the book are coming true right before our eyes.  You think stupid Nostradamus predicted the future?  My goodness, he has NOTHING on this woman Ayn Rand.  She’s actually buried in Kensico Cemetery, across the street from where I work.  I’ve seen her grave.  It was an honor.

Anyway, they voted to pass a bill that they couldn’t POSSIBLY have EVEN READ!  The sneaky Dems slipped 300 more pages into the bill at 3am–the effect of the bill, if it goes all the way through, will be the single biggest tax increase in history.  A tax on everyone.  Some estimates have it as low as $700 per year–some have it at $3000.  And remember, that’s AFTER TAX DOLLARS that they are talking about, so multiply it by 1.0 + your tax rate.  If it’s 1000 bucks and you pay 35% tax, the penalty is that you have to EARN $1,350 to clear the $1000 that this will cost you in higher energy bills.

And, no, you won’t be hearing this on CNN or MSNBC or ABC, or CBS or in the New York Times.  Call your congressman and senator and tell them if they vote for this–you won’t vote for them.  Sit on your hands?  They are in your pocket.  It’s that simple. –Fog

The REAL Loss

Filed under: Uncategorized — mcgonnigle @ 11:16 am

McGavinGraveI see now that there are t-shirts being sold that say stuff like, “R.I.P. Michael”.  If this keeps up, I’m going to have to break out my “RIP Darren McGavin” t-shirts.

***

Working on Jackie until late and watching Greta (who else?), I have two thoughs about the whole thing: (1) the guy was 500 million in debt.  Yikes.  and (2) the “Doctor” that was with him is in trouble.

The lessons?  Well, no matter how much you make, it’s possible to spend it all and then some.  Private amusment parks are a slippery slope.

Also, drugs will mess you up.  They don’t forgive.   Once you decide to take them, you have made a choice that might not work out so well.

***

Been enjoying reading a book about a Russian guy who became a hedge fund boss.  Can’t think of the title right now.  Anyway, in his thoughts on technical analysis, he says: “Technical analysis works, until it doesn’t.”  Exactly.

Guys have tried to make forumlae for years to “beat” the market.  They are hooey.  And if they worked, they wouldn’t be shared–they’d be traded.  If someone is selling you a “perfect” scheme, why aren’t they trading it themselves?  Common sense.

The past can’t predict the future.  Things are going to happen in the future that will affect your stocks.  Pay attention.  Be ready to pull up stakes because things that work for a while, don’t work after that.  Try to be emotionless.  Always learn.  Learn, learn, learn and the learn some more.  Life is about learning.  So learn.

Learning is why I am reading about Chartists and their ideas.  I’m not going to BE a chartist, because I’m pretty sure it doesn’t work all by itself.  But I want to learn what I can from them.  Any smart guys who spend their lives looking at something SURELY have something to teach you.  Just don’t buy-in too heavily, and I don’t.  And knowing why something might NOT work, is as valuable as why it would work.  Knowledge is power (and money).

So I’m enjoying the IBD these days and I was hesitant to buy a subscription because it’s expensive.  But after a trial on it, I bought a year.  I have picked two stocks with the help of the IBD 100 and both are up and the subscription is paid for in 2 days and now shows a nifty profit.

And I’m investing now with Max, my nephew.  He has a “share” of those two purchases and we’re hoping that he follows it and learns some stuff and maybe has some fun.  Notice I didn’t say anything about making money in there?  But, of course, he thinks that he is going to make money, cash out and buy video games.  He’s 9.  It’s cute.  I’d be alarmed if he DIDN’T want to operate that way.

My hope for him is that I can begin to teach him 2 concepts.  Well, they really are the same concept.  But saving and investing, as an overall policy is the first.  The second?  Compounding.  The time-value of money.  I want him to begin to understand that if he makes a 8% return (which we have in the last 4 days since we started: FUQI and SNDA) on 250 dollars, he makes $20 profit (taxes and tranny costs ignored–I’m not charging him vig) and yet on $500 principal, he makes $40 bucks.  I want to eventually get him to realize that compounded monthly for 5 years, at just a 15% return, that 500 will grow to $1,054.00

Just for sitting around.  And suppose you do well in growth stocks in the market and make a whopping 40% return over those 5 years (walking on water, I know), then that original 500 will grow to $3,576 in just 5 years.  I just want that concept to sink in.  He shouldn’t be 19 and taking Micro Economics at college when that concept is just sinking in.

Any interest he develops in the market?  In checking his stocks?  Understanding quarter estimates and EPS and EPS growth and sectors and bull and bear trends: it’s all gravy.  We’ll see how it goes.  To me,  if he’s into fantasy baseball, this isn’t a stretch. –Fog

June 25, 2009

Kolchak, Jackson, Elvis and hooey

Filed under: Uncategorized — mcgonnigle @ 8:19 pm

June 20, 2009

Hands Up

Filed under: Uncategorized — mcgonnigle @ 2:00 pm
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